African Economies Caught Between United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia as Gulf Rivalry Reshapes Trade, Gold, and Strategic Ports
The growing rivalry between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia is increasingly shaping economic and political developments across Africa, particularly in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea corridor. What began as a regional security dispute in the Middle East has evolved into a broader competition involving trade routes, port control, mineral exports, and strategic influence, placing several African economies in a delicate balancing position.
Rising Tensions and African Diplomacy
The geopolitical tension between the two Gulf powers drew significant attention during the 39th Ordinary Session of the African Union held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. African leaders convened to address pressing continental priorities while carefully avoiding direct alignment in the Gulf dispute. According to diplomats cited by Reuters, many African governments are seeking to maintain neutrality amid escalating tensions.
The rift intensified in December when Saudi Arabia supported a demand for Emirati forces to withdraw from Yemen within 24 hours. The situation escalated further when Saudi-led coalition forces reportedly targeted what Riyadh described as a UAE-linked weapons shipment in the southern Yemeni port of Mukalla, an event widely viewed as one of the most visible confrontations between the two oil-producing nations.
While the rivalry initially centered on strategic maritime routes such as the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, its influence has now spread deeper into Africa. Diplomatic sources indicate that the competition is shaping developments in countries including Somalia, Sudan, and parts of the Sahel region.
Sudan: A Strategic Economic Battleground
Sudan has emerged as one of the most economically exposed nations in the dispute, particularly due to its gold exports and ongoing internal conflict.
In 2024, Sudan exported nearly $1.97 billion worth of gold to the UAE. Within the first nine months alone, approximately 10.9 tonnes valued at $1.05 billion were shipped to Dubai, reinforcing the UAE’s dominant role in Sudan’s gold trade.
Meanwhile, Sudan’s internal conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has drawn the involvement of multiple external powers. Countries including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran, Turkey, Egypt, and Russia are supporting different factions based on strategic interests. Sudan’s government has also accused the UAE of involvement in the conflict, allegations that Abu Dhabi strongly denies.
Amid these tensions, Saudi Arabia has moved to strengthen economic ties with Sudan by preparing to purchase Sudanese gold for processing through its national refining facilities. Negotiations have also explored granting Saudi companies rights to explore Sudan’s mineral resources, including chrome, mica, and manganese, signaling expanding cooperation in the mining sector.
At the same time, Sudan’s military leadership under General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan is reportedly advancing a $1.5 billion arms agreement with Pakistan, a close Saudi defense partner. This follows Sudan’s cancellation of a $6 billion port agreement with the UAE, further straining relations between Khartoum and Abu Dhabi.
Ports, Trade Routes, and Sovereignty Concerns
The Gulf rivalry is also reshaping strategic infrastructure and diplomatic relations across the Horn of Africa.
Somalia has launched investigations into allegations that the UAE facilitated the movement of a Yemeni separatist leader through Somali territory. Additionally, Somali authorities have accused the UAE of influencing Israel’s recognition of Somaliland’s independence bid, claims that remain publicly unaddressed by the Emirati government.
Tensions escalated further when Mogadishu severed diplomatic relations with the UAE, a decision that disrupted existing defense and port agreements. The UAE maintains commercial interests in key regional ports, including Berbera and Bosaso, which serve as vital trade gateways connecting Red Sea shipping routes to inland East African markets. Any disruption to these operations could significantly impact regional supply chains, logistics networks, and national revenues.
Countries along the Red Sea corridor, including Djibouti and Eritrea, remain strategically positioned in this evolving landscape, where maritime access directly influences trade flows and customs income. Ethiopia continues to maintain strong ties with the UAE, while Eritrea has strengthened its engagement with Saudi Arabia, highlighting shifting regional alliances.
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Expanding Investment Competition
Despite rising tensions, both Gulf powers continue to deepen their economic engagement across Africa
The UAE remains one of the continent’s largest investors, deploying over $118 billion across African economies between 2020 and 2024. Bilateral trade between the UAE and African countries reached approximately $107 billion in 2024. In November, Abu Dhabi announced a $1 billion “AI for Development” initiative aimed at advancing digital infrastructure and artificial intelligence capabilities across African markets.
Saudi Arabia, for its part, is expanding its presence through large-scale mining, energy, and infrastructure investments aligned with its Vision 2030 economic diversification strategy. Beyond economic partnerships, Saudi Arabia also holds considerable religious influence across Africa due to its custodianship of Islam’s two holiest sites, adding a significant diplomatic dimension to its engagement on the continent.
Opportunities and Risks for Africa
For African nations, the intensifying Gulf rivalry presents both strategic opportunities and potential vulnerabilities. On one hand, competition between the UAE and Saudi Arabia could attract increased investment, improve infrastructure development, and diversify economic partnerships across the continent.
On the other hand, aligning too closely with one power may risk strained trade relations, disrupted access to ports, or limited financing opportunities from the other. Countries heavily dependent on mineral exports and maritime trade routes face particularly high exposure to the shifting geopolitical landscape.
As the Gulf rivalry continues to unfold, African governments are increasingly tasked with navigating a complex environment where economic development, sovereignty, and international diplomacy intersect, shaping the future of trade and stability across the region.
