Ghana Risks Losing Position as World’s Second-Largest Cocoa Producer Amid Rising Global Competition
Ghana may soon lose its long-standing position as the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, as growing production challenges and financial constraints continue to weaken the country’s cocoa sector. Meanwhile, emerging producers such as Ecuador, Indonesia, and Nigeria are expanding their output and positioning themselves to take Ghana’s place in the global cocoa market.
The development has sparked national concern due to cocoa’s critical role in Ghana’s economy, where the crop supports more than 800,000 farming households and serves as a major source of foreign exchange earnings.
Government Moves to Address Sector Crisis
In response to the worsening situation, Ghana’s President, John Dramani Mahama, recently convened an emergency Cabinet meeting to address urgent challenges confronting the cocoa industry. Key issues discussed included delayed payments to farmers, liquidity constraints affecting the regulator, and declining harvest levels.
The country’s cocoa sector is managed by the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD), which regulates production, supports farmers, and oversees cocoa exports. However, the institution is currently grappling with significant operational and financial pressures.
For decades, Ghana has maintained its position as the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, ranking just behind Côte d’Ivoire, Africa’s leading cocoa supplier. Today, that position faces unprecedented threats.
Sharp Decline in Cocoa Production
Cocoa output in Ghana has fallen dramatically in recent years. In June 2025, COCOBOD announced that the country was likely to miss its production target for the 2024/2025 season.
The regulator initially reduced its forecast from 650,000 tonnes to 617,500 tonnes in December 2024 but later indicated that total production would likely not exceed 600,000 tonnes far below Ghana’s historical average of 800,000 tonnes and significantly lower than the more than 1 million tonnes recorded during the 2020/2021 bumper season.
According to COCOBOD’s Managing Director, Randy Abbey, approximately 590,000 tonnes had been collected with only three months remaining in the crop season, making significant improvement unlikely.
More recently, during a press briefing at Cocoa House in Accra on February 6, 2026, Abbey disclosed that although COCOBOD had sold more than 530,000 tonnes of cocoa for the current season, nearly 50,000 tonnes remained unsold and in the possession of farmers. He attributed the situation to Ghana’s non-competitive farmgate pricing, which has discouraged buyers.
The decline in production has been linked to several structural challenges, including:
Aging cocoa plantations
The spread of Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease
Illegal mining activities known locally as galamsey
Cocoa smuggling across borders
Climate-related weather disruptions
These factors have collectively weakened productivity and threatened the sustainability of Ghana’s cocoa sector.
Rising Competition from Global Producers
While Ghana struggles with production setbacks, competing nations are rapidly increasing their output. Ecuador is emerging as a major force in South America’s cocoa industry. The country is projected to produce more than 650,000 tonnes in the 2025/2026 season, with expectations of reaching 800,000 tonnes by the end of the decade. Ecuador’s success is largely attributed to higher farm productivity, with yields averaging about 800 kilograms per hectare, significantly higher than West Africa’s average of less than 500 kilograms per hectare. Farmers also receive approximately 90% of the world market price, far above the 60–70% typically earned by farmers in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.
In Southeast Asia, Indonesia, currently the world’s third-largest cocoa producer, continues to strengthen its position in the global market. The country recorded 641,741 tonnes in 2023 and dominates regional production. Government-backed initiatives and private sector programs aimed at improving farm yields and cocoa quality are expected to increase Indonesia’s output by nearly 30%, reaching an estimated 836,000 tonnes by 2026.
Within West Africa, Nigeria, currently ranked fourth globally, has also set ambitious targets to expand its cocoa production. The country aims to increase output from about 340,000 tonnes to 500,000 tonnes, representing roughly 6.5% of global supply. Although structural challenges remain, improved irrigation systems and government support could position Nigeria as a strong contender to challenge Ghana’s ranking.
Global Market Pressures and Industry Outlook
The global cocoa market continues to experience price volatility. As of February 12, 2026, cocoa futures have declined from the historic highs recorded in 2024 but remain elevated at approximately $3,700 per tonne.
In response to market uncertainty, a United Nations Cocoa Conference held on February 13, 2026, introduced a new International Cocoa Agreement aimed at promoting sustainability and stabilizing prices across the global cocoa sector.
Future of Ghana’s Cocoa Industry
Ghana’s ability to retain its position as the world’s second-largest cocoa producer will depend largely on the country’s ability to implement domestic reforms, strengthen farmer support systems, address production challenges, and respond swiftly to rising international competition.
Without decisive action, the nation risks losing not only its global ranking but also a crucial pillar of its economic stability and agricultural heritage.
